Hormuz Shipping Surges but Gulf Oil Exports Fail to Rebound

Despite a slight uptick in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf oil exports continue to struggle to recover. The marginal increase in traffic comes amid ongoing, yet undisclosed, US-Iran peace negotiations following the collapse of a previous memorandum of understanding and subsequent weeks of reciprocal strikes.

However, regional security deteriorated further overnight after the US launched fresh strikes on Iran in response to attacks on American forces in Jordan. Additionally, reports indicate a US-owned LNG vessel was struck at an Egyptian port.

According to Kpler data cited by Bloomberg, fourteen commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in both directions on Wednesday, up from single digits the previous week. Despite a temporary four-day pause in US strikes on Iran, Kpler reports that Middle East Gulf crude exports remain near recent lows, with loading activity dropping by over 50% for the first time in six weeks. Kpler noted that the crude backlog has simply shifted between the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, driven by high war risk insurance costs, persistent maritime security threats, and Iranian interdictions. While offshore ship-to-ship transfers are helping manage inventories, they have not expanded actual export capacity.

In notable vessel movements, Qatar’s *Al Areesh* departed the Persian Gulf with the nation’s first LNG shipment in three weeks. Meanwhile, a supertanker was provisionally booked at nearly $500,000 per day to transport Gulf crude to China. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed that the US military is escorting oil and gas shipments through the strait, noting that approximately 6.5 million barrels of oil per day exited the Gulf over the past week with US support.

### Key Maritime Chokepoint Developments:

#### Strait of Hormuz
* **Norwegian Tanker:** A Norwegian-flagged products tanker is reportedly preparing to exit the strait.
* **Iranian Vessels:** Two Iran-linked Suezmax tankers, the *Chloe* and *Kariz*, entered the strait and are currently idling near Bandar Abbas, Iran.
* **VLCC Booking:** The Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) *Jamaica Prosperity* was provisionally chartered by a Chinese firm to load a Persian Gulf cargo on August 3 at a rate of nearly $500,000 per day (465 Worldscale points).

#### Southern Red Sea
* **Traffic Decline:** Only 21 commodity vessels transited the Bab el-Mandeb strait on Wednesday, down from 38 the previous day, according to Kpler.
* **Russian Crude:** Russian crude accounted for the only visible exports through the chokepoint, totaling roughly 3.5 million barrels, though other vessels may have transited with transponders disabled.
* **Dark Vessels:** The South Korean-controlled VLCC *V Glory* and the Saudi-flagged *Samha* both went dark after approaching the Gulf of Aden recently.
* **August Bookings:** Several vessels were provisionally booked to load from Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, in August, with options to exit via Bab el-Mandeb toward South Korea.

#### Northern Red Sea
* **Port Attack:** Two LNG carriers were struck late Wednesday at Egypt’s Damietta port near the Suez Canal; no group has claimed responsibility.
* **Route Diversions:** The Japanese-flagged VLCC *Takamatsu Maru* altered its destination from the US to Egypt’s Sidi Kerir terminal on the Mediterranean and is currently sailing southeast of Africa.
* **Sidi Kerir Activity:** The vessels *Bidbid* and *VL Prosperity* have arrived to load at Sidi Kerir, despite previously listing Asian destinations. Meanwhile, three VLCCs (*Olympic Luck*, *DHT Gazelle*, and *DHT Mustang*) that departed from Yanbu are currently idling off Sidi Kerir without clear destinations.