EIA Projects Record-Breaking U.S. Crude Output of 13.8 Million Bpd by 2026
admin 
According to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), domestic crude oil production is projected to hit an unprecedented average of 13.8 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in 2026. This growth is primarily fueled by expansion in the Permian basin and new offshore projects in the federal Gulf of Mexico.
This projected volume would edge out the prior annual record of 13.7 MMbpd established in 2025. During the first half of 2026, U.S. output averaged 13.7 MMbpd, representing a 2% increase (roughly 300,000 bpd) compared to the same timeframe in the previous year.
The EIA notes that the bulk of this year’s output gains is concentrated within the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico, alongside federal Gulf waters.
### Permian Basin Outlook
Permian crude output is anticipated to average 6.8 MMbpd in 2026, marking a 3% rise from 2025. This upward trajectory is backed by sustained oil-directed drilling and favorable oil prices.
Through August, WTI crude prices averaged $84 per barrel, a notable increase from the $65 average seen in 2025. These market prices comfortably exceed the average breakeven costs reported by operators in the Dallas Fed’s March energy survey, which identified breakeven thresholds of $69 per barrel in the Midland basin and $63 per barrel in the Delaware basin. The EIA projects that these strong prices will continue to encourage drilling and drive production growth across the region.
### Gulf of Mexico Outlook
During the first half of 2026, federal offshore crude production climbed by about 10% (200,000 bpd) compared to the first half of 2025. For the entirety of 2026, the EIA projects Gulf production will rise by 3%, or approximately 100,000 bpd.
A significant portion of the first-half surge was driven by four major offshore developments that launched over the past year:
* **Shenandoah FPU:** Averaged roughly 70,000 bpd since its July 2025 launch.
* **Ballymore subsea tieback:** Averaged 58,000 bpd since starting up in April 2025.
* **Whale FPU:** Averaged 38,000 bpd since going online in January 2025.
* **Salamanca FPU:** Averaged 25,000 bpd since initiating production from the Leon and Castile fields in late 2025.
Four additional, smaller deepwater projects are slated to begin production by the end of the year, which will offer further support to the 2026 outlook.
While hurricanes present a recurring risk to offshore operations and project timelines, Colorado State University’s updated forecast predicts below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity for the 2026 season due to prevailing El Niño conditions.
