Saudi Red Sea Crude Exports Plummet 41% Since March Peak
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**Saudi Red Sea Crude Exports Plunge 41% from March Peak**
Saudi Arabia’s strategy of bypassing the Strait of Hormuz by redirecting its crude oil exports through the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu is facing severe challenges. According to vessel tracking and cargo data from Wood Mackenzie, crude exports from Yanbu have plummeted 41% to approximately 2.39 million barrels per day (bpd) by June, down from a peak of 4.07 million bpd in March.
This decline represents a broader 66% drop from Saudi Arabia’s total export volume in January, which stood at roughly 7.96 million bpd across both its Persian Gulf and Red Sea terminals.
Initially, the redirection of oil to Yanbu was seen as a viable solution to avoid the geopolitical risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz. However, analysts warn that this shift has merely traded one vulnerability for another.
“For months, the market treated Yanbu as the answer to Hormuz risk,” said Ian Solis, a maritime operations data analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “The problem is that Yanbu has its own chokepoint. If Bab al-Mandeb comes under sustained disruption from a declared Houthi naval blockade, Asia stands to lose a major crude supply artery.”
This vulnerability was highlighted this week when Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed to have targeted two Saudi oil tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The group stated the attacks were enforcement of a naval blockade they declared earlier in the week, targeting vessels violating their transit restrictions.
The escalating conflict in the region underscores the limits of Saudi Arabia’s pipeline diversification. Rather than securing its supply lines, the Kingdom’s pivot to the Red Sea has tied its primary export route to another highly volatile maritime bottleneck.
