Goldman Sachs Holds Q4 2026 Brent Crude Forecast at $80/Barrel
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**Goldman Sachs Projects Brent Crude to Hold at $80 in Q4 2026 Amid Geopolitical Shifts**
Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed its Brent crude price forecast of $80 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026. The investment bank anticipates that reduced oil supply from the Middle East will bolster prices, particularly if geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran begin to moderate toward the end of the year.
**Key Drivers and Market Forecasts:**
* **Balanced Market Pressures:** While lower Middle East output in the latter half of the year provides upward price support, this is currently offset by stronger-than-anticipated production from the region in June, alongside cooling demand in China, South Korea, and the Middle East.
* **Short-Term Outlook:** Oil prices are expected to hold onto recent gains through July and August. This stability is driven by shrinking global inventories, reduced Middle Eastern supply, peak summer travel demand, and a significant reduction in Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases across OECD nations.
* **2027 Price Outlook:** Assuming the Strait of Hormuz remains open, Goldman Sachs projects Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to average $75 and $70 per barrel, respectively, in 2027.
* **Floor on Price Declines:** Even with an expected global supply surplus of 3.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2027, the bank believes Brent will find a floor in the high-$60s. This support is attributed to an estimated 1.2 million bpd of global strategic stockpiling, the price sensitivity of U.S. shale production, and potential supply disruptions.
**Risk Factors and Geopolitical Volatility:**
* **Upside Risk:** If disruptions occur in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude could surge past $120 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026 and average $100 per barrel throughout 2027.
* **Downside Risk:** Conversely, if global supply outpaces expectations and demand weakness persists, Brent could drop to the low $60s by the end of 2027.
* **Current Market Context:** Oil prices recently reached a six-week high, driven by escalating regional conflict, including Houthi attacks on Red Sea oil tankers and renewed U.S. military strikes in Iran.
